CRE Is Recovering. A War and a Stubborn Fed Are Slowing It Down.

Commercial property values ticked up in March, but a war-driven Treasury surge is keeping the recovery on a very short leash.

Jordan B.
April 08, 2026

Together with

Good morning. Commercial property prices rose again in March — and this morning, markets got a potential shot of relief after President Trump announced a two-week suspension of Iran attacks, pausing a five-week conflict that had sent Treasury yields surging and put a ceiling on CRE's fragile recovery. Whether it holds is another question entirely.

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With over 100M SF in shopping centers and mixed-use assets, Kimco Realty Corporation continues to be the biggest grocery-anchored landlord in America.

Ross Cooper joins Jack Stone and Alexander B. Gornik to pull back the curtain on how Kimco Realty builds long-term relationships with the biggest grocers.

CRE Trivia 🧠

What percentage of the world's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz?

(Answer at the bottom of the newsletter)

Market Snapshot

S&P 500

GSPC

6,611.83

Pct Chg:
+0.11%

FTSE NAREIT

FNER

788.60

Pct Chg:
+1.28%

10Y Treasury

TNX

4.258%

Pct Chg:
-0.023

SOFR

30-DAY AVERAGE

3.65%

Pct Chg:
-0.00

*Data as of 4/6/2026 market close.

Treasury Yields

CRE Prices Are Moving in the Right Direction — Just Not Fast Enough

Green Street's Commercial Property Price Index March

Commercial property values ticked up in March, but a war-driven Treasury surge is keeping the recovery on a very short leash.

What happened: According to Green Street's Commercial Property Price Index, CRE values rose 0.4% in March — a modest improvement over February's 0.2% gain — bringing the 12-month increase to 2.6%. On the surface, that's progress. The problem is prices remain 15.5% below their 2022 peak, and the macro environment isn't cooperating.

Conflict in the Middle East: The 10-year Treasury yield — the benchmark that effectively sets borrowing costs for CRE loans — briefly dipped below 4% in late February before the Iran conflict pushed it back to 4.4% by March 27 — the highest since last summer. "We're unlikely to see any increase in real estate pricing" in this environment, said Green Street Co-Head of Strategic Research Peter Rothemund.

The Fed isn't helping: Six rate cuts totaling 175 bps since September 2024 have done less than the market hoped. The Fed held at its last two meetings and is expected to hold again April 29, with tariffs, immigration policy, and oil price spikes keeping inflation stubbornly above target.

Winners and losers: Manufactured housing led in March at +2%, with healthcare and data centers topping the 12-month chart at +6% each. Strip retail gained 1%. On the other end, multifamily slipped 0.3% and is down 1% year-over-year. Office remains the most distressed asset class — still 35% below its 2022 peak despite leasing momentum.

Green Street CPPI®: Sector-Level Indexes

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

What's keeping a ceiling on prices: Per Bisnow's reporting, Green Street's analysis points to a straightforward dynamic — elevated Treasury yields compress buyer appetite, push cap rates higher, and make it nearly impossible for sellers and buyers to agree on value. Until the 10-year settles back toward 4% or below and stays there, meaningful price recovery across asset classes will remain elusive.

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

Capital play: Savills’ $1.1B acquisition of Eastdil Secured positions it as a global capital markets powerhouse and signals a new wave of brokerage consolidation.
Get the audit: Speed up your deal cycle by eliminating hidden inefficiencies—use the Deal Engine Audit to identify eight critical bottlenecks lurking in your brokerage operations. (sponsored)
Office fire-sale: Distressed U.S. office buildings are trading at discounts of up to 90% as landlords and lenders finally capitulate to weak demand and high rates.
Yield ceiling: The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index® increased 0.4% in March. Elevated Treasury yields and stubbornly high cap rates are expected to keep broader pricing growth in check.
Class gains: More Americans are entering the upper middle class as income growth and economic shifts expand the ranks of higher-earning households.
Soft deposit funding: DuckFund equips real estate investors with earnest money deposit financing within 48h upon application, empowering them to lock high-value opportunities faster, outcompete buyers and remove capital barriers. (sponsored)
Inflation risk: Jamie Dimon warns inflation could be a major threat to markets this year, potentially keeping rates higher and pressuring asset prices.
Maintenance strain: NYC nonprofits are struggling to maintain aging affordable housing as rising costs and slow city response stretch limited resources.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

Concession surge: Apartment concessions hit their highest level since 2014, with 16.7% of U.S. units offering discounts averaging ~10.8% as operators fight to maintain occupancy.
Multifamily fund: Carmel Partners closed a $1.35B multifamily fund, positioning itself to capitalize on a supply-constrained apartment market with a mix of development, acquisitions, and debt investments.
IPO revival: A senior housing REIT is exploring a public listing after years of losses, signaling renewed investor interest as fundamentals begin to stabilize.
Buying window: Bell Partners sees a rare opportunity to deploy capital during the current reset, with pricing dislocations creating more attractive entry points for investors.
Dallas conviction: Knightvest Capital is doubling down on Uptown Dallas with its Ardan acquisition, reinforcing long-term confidence in one of the city’s top-performing submarkets.

🏭 Industrial

Rent reversal: U.S. industrial rents are turning negative after years of growth as rising supply and slowing demand—especially from large tenants—reshape the warehouse market.
Cargo crunch: Industrial vacancy near JFK sits at just 6.4%, with rents surpassing $30/SF for the first time as cargo volume and leasing demand surge.
Debt reload: Blackstone is securing a $1.6B refinancing for a 94-property, 14.7M SF industrial portfolio, underscoring continued lender appetite for logistics assets.
DFW trade: CanTex Capital sold a majority stake in a Dallas-Fort Worth industrial portfolio spanning 20 assets across 61+ acres, highlighting sustained investor demand for infill logistics.

🏬 RETAIL

Retail boom: NewQuest’s $400M Texas Heritage Marketplace is accelerating construction with 750K+ SF of retail and 165 acres, reflecting strong demand in Houston’s fast-growing Katy corridor.
Construction crunch: U.S. retail construction fell further in Q1 2026 as high costs, elevated interest rates, and cautious developer sentiment continue to stall new projects despite steady demand.
Healthcare play: Cedars-Sinai’s Beverly Connection buy now tops $300M across two deals, giving the hospital control of a ~340K SF retail site for long-term campus expansion.
Retail refi: JLL secured a $20.5M refinancing for a fully leased New Jersey shopping center, signaling continued lender appetite for stabilized, tenant-anchored retail assets.
Defying the narrative: Indoor malls are regaining momentum as traffic rises and consumers seek experience-driven destinations, while open-air centers dominate convenience trips and outlet malls face mounting pressure to redefine their appeal.

🏢 OFFICE

Business risk: Jamie Dimon warns NYC could lose more companies as high taxes persist, noting the bank’s local headcount has already dropped from ~30,000 to 24,000 while growth shifts to lower-cost states.
Office buy: Namdar Realty is acquiring 250 W. 57th Street for roughly $280M (~540K SF, ~$519/SF), marking a major Midtown office trade amid a challenged market.
Where it works: Remote work is declining in major office-heavy metros but growing in lower-cost Southeast markets, signaling a lasting geographic redistribution rather than a full return to pre-pandemic norms.
Mystery tenant: A Mexican billionaire’s record-setting $327-per-square-foot lease at 9 West 57th underscores surging demand—and pricing power—for Manhattan’s top-tier office space.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

Luxury listing: Northwood Investors is seeking $300M for the 250-room, 27-acre Cheeca Lodge in the Florida Keys, highlighting continued demand for high-end resort assets.
Resort revival: A $298M financing—anchored by Nevada’s largest-ever C-PACE loan—will transform the century-old Cal Neva Hotel into a luxury Lake Tahoe resort and casino by 2027.

A MESSAGE FROM MONEYSHOW

Markets are shifting. Are you positioned for what's next?

Volatility, political change, and new market forces are reshaping the investment landscape — and the investors who come out ahead will be the ones who saw it coming.

The MoneyShow Masters Symposium kicks off today in Hollywood, Florida. April 9–11 at the Diplomat Beach Resort, hear from top financial minds including Charles Payne (Fox Business), Stephanie Link (Hightower Advisors), and Kevin Maloney (Property Markets Group).

CRE Daily readers get a free Standard Pass (a $300 value) using code CREDAILY at checkout.

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📈 CHART OF THE DAY

CRE Trivia (Answer)🧠

Approximately 20% of the world's oil supply — and roughly 30% of all seaborne crude oil — passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it the single most important oil transit chokepoint in the world.