- Jamie Dimon warns US national debt, now $38.5T, is unsustainable with risks of triggering a future financial crisis.
- Cascade effects of rising Treasury yields could impact commercial real estate borrowing costs.
- National debt could reach $48.6T in five years if current pace continues.
- Short-term economic momentum remains, but geopolitical instability adds uncertainty.
Debt Crisis Warnings Intensify
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that US debt crisis risks are rising as America’s national debt reaches historic highs. Globe St reports that in a recent public discussion, Dimon highlighted the possibility that surging debt levels, now at $38.5T, may eventually undermine investor confidence and financial system stability.
Impact on CRE Borrowing
Analysts note that yields on 10-year Treasury notes, a key benchmark for commercial real estate (CRE) borrowing, could jump if investor concerns grow. Higher yields would lower the value of existing debt and could add pressure on financial institutions, potentially spreading risks through the CRE market.
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Rapid Debt Trajectory
Federal Reserve and Treasury data show that the national debt has increased by $2.2T from 2021–22, $1.9T in 2023, $2.5T in 2024, and $3.2T in 2025. At this pace, the US could see its debt hit $48.6T within five years—raising worries about future CRE debt crisis risks.
Short-Term Optimism, Long-Term Challenge
Despite his longer-term concerns, Dimon acknowledged positive short-term trends, such as robust investment in AI, manufacturing, fiscal stimulus, and deregulation. However, he cautioned that ongoing geopolitical tensions and surging global bond yields, such as those recently seen in Japan, could further strain financial markets, amplifying CRE borrowing and debt crisis risks. These remarks follow a broader pattern of caution Dimon has voiced in recent months around macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting global dynamics.
